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▷ Jorge Castro: They warn about the possibility of a global recession in the economy of the future #15Sep & More Latest News Here

 

The expectations of a global recession, if the great powers do not agree to apply the corrective measures that prevent it, raised the journalist Jorge Castroduring his speech at the Annual Meeting of the Ibero-American Federation of Stock Exchanges (FIAB) that was installed this Thursday in Caracas.

Representatives of the 24 most important stock exchanges from 17 Latin American countries and Spain are participating virtually in this meeting; and, in person, there are representatives of the issuing companies, brokerage houses, analysts, Venezuelan investors, a meeting organized this year by the Caracas Stock Exchange, in commemoration of its 75th anniversary.

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Gustavo Pulido, president of the Caracas Stock Exchangein its capacity as host organization, welcomed the participants, trusting that from the different exhibitions, ideas and proposals will emerge aimed at strengthening the capital market, not only in Venezuela, but also in the Ibero-American sphere.

Claudio Zuchovicki, Secretary General of the Ibero-American Federation of Stock Exchanges and is Manager of Capital Markets Development of the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange. Executive Director of BYMA (Argentine Stock Exchanges and Markets) made the introduction for the presentation of the journalist Jorge Castro, President of the Strategic Planning Institute – IPE. Lawyer (UBA, 1969). He received the National Order of Cruzeiro Do Sul, awarded by the Government of Brazil, among other distinctions, who made a broad presentation on the expectations of the world economy, based on the various scenarios that are being experienced today.

“The war in Ukraine, combined with the trade and financial sanctions imposed on Russia, by the United States, the European Union and the United Kingdom, have struck deeply and with an extraordinary disruptive impact on the world economy of our time. The result is that this impact has been felt above all in the commodity market and in global inflationary financial conditions. The result has been a deep slowdown in the world economy, which would grow only 2.9% annually this year; last year the World Bank forecast growth this year of 4.5% in the year and has readjusted it to 2.9%, maintaining that it would remain at the same level between 2023 and 2024. This slowdown trend coincides with an increase in inflation, with the global inflation rate rising this year to 7.8% per year, the highest level since 2008, in advanced countries this implies an average inflation rate of 8.5% per year; in the In the United Kingdom the inflation rate is 9.1% per year and the Bank of England forecasts that by the end of the year the inflation rate in the United Kingdom will rise to 21% or more. In short, what is foreseeable for the next ten years, it is a situation of low economic growth combined with high inflation”. Castro said.

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He points out that what has unleashed this inflationary wave in the worldhas been the global energy shock, caused by the war in Ukraine and the sanctions imposed on Russia by the United States and European countries.

What is remarkable is that long-term economic growth, the one that is going to take place after the second half of the 20’s, in the World Bank’s estimation, is going to acquire a level of only 2%, which implies a generalized weakening of the potential growth capacity, especially of the more advanced economies. It must be added that this occurs when the technological change in the last 20 years has been truly extraordinary and when the global economy is now much more flexible and efficient than it was then, even in energy terms, than it was two decades ago; but also when we find ourselves in full deployment of the fourth industrial revolution, which is the process in which capitalism is completely digitized, both in manufacturing and in services and it is in these conditions that there is a drop in potential long-term growth from the second part of the decade of 20%, according to World Bank estimates”, says Castro.

Warns that putting an end to the war in Ukraine, with an agreement between the parties, it is possible to eradicate, in a single movement and practically immediately, a year or less, the underlying causes of the global crisisbecause it is an absolutely exogenous phenomenon and foreign to the organic process of capitalist accumulation of the 21st century and the globalized capitalism.

He warns that what is happening is a major rupture and confrontation, which transforms the current crisis into the most serious in the history of the capitalist system, much higher even than that of 2008-2009. Between the United States and NATO today, there is a situation of global war, as defined by the US Secretary of Defense with Russia and Chinaand all the Bretton Wood institutions are today deeply divided or emptied of content.

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▷ Jorge Castro: They warn about the possibility of a global recession in the economy of the future #15Sep
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