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Covid-19: Fiocruz points to a favorable scenario, but sees the end of the year uncertain & More Breaking News


The Infogripe bulletin, published weekly by the Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (Fiocruz), indicates a reduction in the number of cases of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) in long and short-term trends. According to the prognosis, Brazil may reach a lower level than that observed in April 2022, until then the lowest since the beginning of the covid-19 pandemic.ebc

SARS is a complication often associated with the worsening of some viral infection. The patient may experience respiratory distress and a drop in oxygen saturation, among other symptoms. The number of occurrences has increased in recent years due to the spread of covid-19.

Despite the positive scenario, Fiocruz researchers note that a quiet end of the year is still uncertain, since the turns from 2020 to 2021 and from 2021 to 2022 were marked by an increase in cases. According to Infogripe coordinator Marcelo Gomes, science is still learning about covid-19 and the disease has not yet shown a clear pattern of seasonality. He advocates constant monitoring for the adoption of the necessary measures in case a significant increase in occurrences is observed again.

The new bulletin gathers data from the epidemiological week that runs from the 4th to the 10th of September. It brings indicatives for the next three weeks (short term) and for the next six weeks (long term). The survey takes into account notifications registered in Sivep-gripe, an information system maintained by the Ministry of Health and fed by states and municipalities.

Only four of the 27 units of the Federation – Amapá, Ceará, Espírito Santo and Roraima – show signs of growth in the long-term trend. In the others, a scenario of decline or stability is observed.

In 2020, the spread of covid-19 accounted for 97% of SARS cases with positive laboratory results for some respiratory virus. This percentage is currently lower: in 2022, 79.3% of occurrences are associated with the disease. However, in the cut of those cases that evolved to death throughout that year, 93.2% are still related to covid-19.

Considering the entire year of 2022, 234,823 SARS cases were reported. Of this total, 114,401 had a positive laboratory result for some respiratory virus.

children and teenagers

The new edition of Infogripe also brings notes on the growth of SARS cases in children and adolescents, which started at the turn of July to August. According to the researchers, laboratory data suggest that the situation is not associated with covid-19, but with the effect of other respiratory viruses common in the school environment, possibly due to the resumption of classes after the vacation period.

The bulletin indicates that the growth curve already shows signs of interruption or reversal to fall in several states of the country.

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