2027: Spin doctors kick-start early campaigns
FELIX NWANERI reports that the leadership of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) has joined the fray of an early race for the 2027 presidential election apparently to avoid being caught napping given recent political developments within the camp of the opposition.
It is reminiscent of politics of politics of yester-years as some political spin doctors have started a second term for President Bola Tinubu’s even when he has not spent a year in office. The President was inaugurated on May 29, 2023 for a four-year tenure and will mark a year in office in the next 23 days, but some chieftains of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) have practically launched an early campaign for his re-election. While such campaigns or endorsements are not new to Nigeria’s polity, President of the Senate, Godswill Akpabio, blew the lid of the second term campaign for President Tinubu, while addressing state governors and federal lawmakers, who paid Sallah homage to Tinubu at his residence in Lagos during the Eid el Kabir celebration. “As you coast home to victory for a second term, may all the governors seated here also coast home to a second term victory in their states,” Akpabio proclaimed thereby setting the tone for an early push for Tinubu’s re-election bid. At the gathering were 27 governors from across party divides, former governors and the leadership of both chambers of the National Assembly – Senate and House of Representatives. As expected, Akpabio’s declaration set the stage for other speakers at the event to shower praises on the President.
Vice President Kashim Shettima, who spoke on behalf of his principal, not only expressed confidence in Nigeria’s economic resurgence under Tinubu’s leadership, but noted that the gathering of 27 governors in Lagos along with the legislative leadership is a testament of the President’s unifying leadership that transcends ethnic and religious lines. His words: “Let us unite, rally around our leader, and catapult this nation to a greater pedestal. By December, I hope we will have cause to celebrate. Let us coalesce to take the nation to a greater pedestal. The future of the black man rests on Nigeria to make or mar. Our economy has turned the corner. By the coming months, the economy will roar back to glory.” Kwara State governor, AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq, who also chairs the Nigeria Governors Forum (NGF), also praised the President’s efforts in stabilizing the economy and improving living conditions. “We commend your efforts because the ship is gradually turning. We have seen how the exchange rate of the naira against the dollar is coming down. The cost of food is coming down. The dry season harvest is commencing soon. Things are getting better, and there is light at the end of the tunnel,” he said. Urging President Tinubu to persevere in his efforts towards achieving economic stability, Governor AbdulRazaq expressed gratitude for the support provided by the Federal Government to states, particularly in distributing grains to alleviate food shortages. ”We are here to support you, and we also thank you for the support that you are giving to the sub-nationals. Trucks are wheeling up across the nation, distributing grains. I have received, and most of the states have. ”Because of what you are doing, those who are hoarding food items are releasing them, and that is why the prices of food are coming down,” he said.
Ganduje, Nabbena says no vacancy in 2027
While many took Akpabio’s declaration with a pinch of salt given that the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has not made any pronouncement concerning the 2027 elections , the recent pronouncement by the National Chairman of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), Abdullahi Ganduje that there will be no vacancy in Aso Rock (as the presidential villa is also known) in 2027, when another general election will be due, speaks volume of the scheming that is already going on. Ganduje, who made the assertion, while addressing supporters and some support groups at the party’s national secretariat in Abuja, last week, added that the Tinubu administration has been contending with the accumulation of many years of neglect, policy summersaults and other disjointed decisions by previous administrations. Pointing fingers to the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), Ganduje said the leadership of the party and its chieftains are afraid, having been defeated in the last general election and already foreseeing another defeat are now engaged in a propaganda campaign against the leadership of APC.
His words: “They are so afraid because we are consolidating. They are so afraid all over the country because we are receiving new entrants into our party. That is creating fears in their minds. They are already eyeing 2027, but at that time, there is no vacancy. Only our president, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, will, Insha Allah, continue as the president of the Federal Republic of Nigeria.” The immediate past governor of Kano State, also taunted the leadership of NNPP and its chieftains in the state, accusing them of sponsoring protests and campaigning for his removal as APC national chairman. He described NNPP as a party of failed and arrogant politicians, saying: “What they are doing is African magic drama in order to convey a failed programme and project by failed politicians. We will not allow them to continue with that. They are also sponsoring pockets of diffident protest from all over the country. They are spending a huge amount of money in order for people to demonstrate against the leadership of our party. “It is a complete failure from what we have seen all over the country. The whole drama, political rascality, started from Kano with the government. Instead of responding to the yearnings, needs, and demands of the people of Kano State, they decided to divert attention. “Our eyes are on those who are diverting our attention to political propaganda against the APC. We understand what they are doing. It is a political drama. They are a small party. They are a party that is terribly defeated all over the country. It is a party that is breaking down. It is a party that is a mixture of failed politicians. “If you follow what is happening in that party, you will find out that it is a party that is sharply divided between those who are authentic members of the party and those who are fake members of the party, individualistic and so arrogant in the management of the political party.” A former Deputy National Publicity Secretary of the APC, Yekini Nabena, who re-echoed the “no-vacancy” position, declared as unachievable, plots by some political parties to unseat President Tinubu in the next election. Nabena, who was reacting to talks of merger and a mega party among some members of the opposition, said: “The 2027 presidential election will come and go but the presidency will remain in the South and President Bola Tinubu, by God’s grace, will continue his good job. If former President Muhammadu Buhari could complete his eight years in office, by the grace of God Almighty, the incumbent, President Bola Tinubu will do the same, not even the talk of mega party or merger can stop him. “The South must also complete the eight years political arrangement and President Bola Tinubu will do that for the South. The South will not fight one another again for another region to benefit. The era of division in Southern Nigeria is gone for good. The Almighty God will perfect President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s health and grant him wisdom to take the country to the Promised Land. On the move by some chieftains of the APC and the opposition to float a mega party, Nabena said: “Again, we must also tell the plotters of a mega party and those ones thinking of merger that we are not afraid of any. I am so much hopeful that even before the next election, the results of the ongoing reforms will be evidenced even to the blind, and those plotting mega party or merger will not have option than to accept defeat before the election.”
Second term campaign amidst hardship
No doubt, there is nothing wrong with anyone canvassing for a second term for the President because it is his constitutional right, the worry is that the second term campaign is on the heels of criticisms of some policies of his administration and the wait for him deliver on his campaign promises. President Tinubu had made several promises in the course of interacting with different stakeholders ahead of the 2023 elections. His policy document with the theme: “Renewed Hope: Action Plan for a Better Nigeria,” offered directions on his plans for security, economy and foreign policy. On his plans for the economy, Tinubu said he will engage the private sector to drive economic development across the country. He particularly promised to address the conflict between monetary and fiscal policies. He also assured Nigerians that budgeting would be based on the projected spending levels needed to push real annual growth rate above seven per cent, while unemployment rate will be reduced for the economy to be doubled in 10 years. Besides promising to phase out fuel subsidy, which he did on the day of his inauguration, Tinubu also pledged to accelerate full implementation of the Petroleum Industry Act as well as to implement additional favourable policies to attract investment in deep water assets within six months.
On the forex crisis that impeded the economy over the years, Tinubu stated in the Renewed Hope document: “To ensure that exchange rate policy harmonises with our goals of optimal growth and job creation driven by industrial, agricultural and infrastructural expansion, we will work with the Central Bank and the financial sector to carefully review and better optimise the exchange rate regime. Our economic policies shall be guided by our desire for a stronger, more stable Naira founded upon a vibrant and productive real economy.” On agriculture, he said his administration will place emphasis on the use of technology to improve the agricultural sector for better production and contribution to the nation’s economy. According to him, “the Buhari administration has invested heavily in agriculture, providing loans and expanding the country’s total acreage of cultivated land. We will build on this, but our focus will be on using technology and expertise to accelerate growth and development by providing the critical infrastructure necessary to achieve the commodity transformations in the agriculture value chain. “Roads, rail, access to ports, and storage infrastructure are what we require to radically transform the agriculture sector and increase its value to the nation. Providing these will be the areas of our focus so that the full potential of our agro economy can be achieved, and we can reap the benefits in jobs, improved economic opportunities and increased prosperity.” On power, he said his administration will be committed to energy sufficiency through the reform of the sector. His words: “Energy supply is another priority. There is no version of the world where Nigeria’s ambition for self can be achieved without solving the problem of how to provide energy to homes and businesses across the country.”
The education sector was not left out as Tinubu said he will provide student loans and reform the Almajiri system in the northern part of the country. He promised that he would recruit and train more teachers as a way of boosting education; establish technology hubs, where youths can develop technological languages on their own and make a better 21st-century approach to governance in Nigeria. On how he would tackle insecurity that is ravaging almost all parts of the country, he said his administration will establish a highly trained and disciplined anti-terrorist squad to tackle the problem. However, as the President marks one year in office on May 29, Nigerians seems to be running out of patience given the long wait for the Promised Land and the fact that the challenges he promised to tackle still persist. President Tinubu had initially blamed his inability to turns things around within the shortest possible time on the comatose economy he inherited. Although he did not publicly put the blame on Buhari, the belief is that his aides spoke his mind. For instance, there was no doubt that Nuhu Ribadu, a former chairman of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), who is presently serving as National Security Adviser (NSA), spoke the President’s mind, when he revealed that Buhari’s administration not only looted the country but left it bankrupt before handing over power to Tinubu. Ribadu, who spoke at the Chief of Defence Intelligence, 2023, Annual Conference in November last year, was emphatic that Buhari left no money in the treasury for Tinubu to run the country.
His words: “Yes, we’re facing budgetary constraints. It is okay for me to tell you. Fine, it is important for you to know that we inherited a difficult situation, literally a bankrupt country, no money, to a point where we can say that all the money we’re getting now, we’re paying back what was taken. It is serious!” While many saw reasons with the Tinubu administration’s claim of empty treasury in its early days given the huge debt burden (over $103 billion) left by the Buhari administration, many Nigerians are no longer interested in listening to any excuse as a justification for nonperformance. To them, Tinubu was aware of the prevalent situation in the country before he made promises of better life for the citizenry. Matters seem to have been worsened by the belief that he played a major role in bringing Buhari to power. This, perhaps, explained the February protest over high cost of living in some states of the federation. The protest, which started in Minna, the Niger State capital, later spread to other cities across the country Besides the hardship over high cost of living, Nigerians are also grappling with security challenges and the situation has assumed an alarming dimension as emboldened criminal elements have upscale their attacks on citizens, killing and kidnapping for ransom. The states that are worst hit in the renewed killings are Plateau and Benue despite the President’s promise in his inaugural speech to “defend the nation from terror and all forms of criminality that threaten the peace and stability of our country.”
Fear of the opposition
Perhaps, the fear of the opposition is the beginning of wisdom for the APC. The belief is that the ruling party might not want to be caught napping given the way the opposition led by the presidential candidates of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Labour Party (LP), Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi have continuously intervened on critical national issues, especially on policies and programmes of the Tinubu administration. To most analysts, the duo kickstarted their respective campaigns for the 2027 election immediately after the Supreme Court judgement that affirmed Tinubu’s election. Many had thought that Atiku, a former vice president would quit politics after his bid to upturn President Bola Tinubu’s election was dashed by the apex court but he has vowed to fight on for the sake of the country’s democracy, which according to him, is on a lifesupport. Addressing a press conference after the Supreme Court judgement, Atiku called for a comprehensive constitutional amendment that will prevent any court or tribunal to hide under technicalities or judicial sophistry to undermine the will of the people. This was he said that what the country is currently dealing with is bigger than one or two presidential elections and certainly bigger than him as well.
His words: “I leave Nigerians and the world to decide what to make of the Supreme Court’s unfortunate decision. But here’s my take. The judgements of the Presidential Election Petition Court (PEPC) and the Supreme Court have very farreaching grave implications. “It is not about me; it is about our country, Nigeria. It is about the kind of society we want to leave for the next generation and what kind of example we want to set for our children and their children. It is about the reputation of Nigeria and Nigerians. “Someone asked me what I would do if I lost my election petition appeal at the Supreme Court. In response, I said that as long as Nigeria wins, the struggle would have been worth the while. By that, I meant that the bigger loss would not be mine but Nigeria’s if the Supreme Court legitimizes illegality, including forgery, identity theft, and perjury. “At the current historic moment, the easier option for me would have been to fold up and retreat after the mandate banditry perpetrated by the APC and Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). “But I went to the Nigerian courts to seek redress. I even went to an American court to help with unravelling what our state institutions charged with such responsibilities were unwilling or unable to do, including unravelling the qualifying academic records of the person sworn in as our President and by implication, hopefully who he really is. “I offered that evidence procured with the assistance of the American Court to our Supreme Court to help it to do justice in this case. As a stakeholder in the presidential election of February 25, I, along with other well-meaning Nigerians have done my bit in ensuring that our democratic process enjoys the privilege of full disclosure of the character deficiencies of the current political leadership. “I also believe that even if the Supreme Court believes otherwise, the purpose of technology in our electoral system is to enhance transparency and not merely as a viewing centre. We have to move with the world and not be stuck in time.” On his resolve to fight on, he declared: “For as long as I breathe; I will continue to struggle with other Nigerians to deepen our democracy. I will continue to work for the return of political and economic restructuring that the country needs.” The former vice president has even gone ahead to call for opposition political parties to come together and create a more formidable front that will salvage Nigeria’s democracy from sliding into a one-party state. According to him, a formidable coalition is necessary to address the perceived decline in democratic values and to prevent Nigeria from becoming a de facto one-party system.
He also noted that the project of protecting democracy in the country is not about just one man. His words: “The project of protecting democracy in our country is not about just one man. But the truth of the matter is that our democracy is fast becoming a one-party system; and, of course, you know that when we have a one-party system, we should just forget about democracy. “We have all seen how the APC is increasingly turning Nigeria into a dictatorship of one party. If we don’t come together to challenge what the ruling party is trying to create, our democracy will suffer for it, and the consequences of it will affect the generations yet unborn.” Obi, on his part, declared that LP and the Obidient Movement that championed his 2023 presidential bid, is now an effective opposition to the Tinubu-led administration. The LP presidential candidate, had also in his reaction to the judgement of the Supreme Court, which affirmed Tinubu’s election, said that LP has moved into effective opposition due to its policies and the governance modalities the party campaigned for prior to the 2023 presidential election. His words: “Going forward, we in the Labour Party and the Obidient Movement are now effectively in opposition. We are glad that the nation has heard us loud and clear. We shall now expand the confines of our message of hope to the rest of the country. We shall meet the people in the places where they feel pain and answer their needs for hope. At marketplaces, motor parks, town halls, board rooms, and university and college campuses, we will all carry and deliver the message of a new Nigeria. “As stakeholders and elected Labour Party officials, we shall remain loyal to our manifesto. We will continue to canvas for good governance and focus on issues that promote national interest, unity, and cohesion. We will continue to give primacy to our constitution, the rule of law, and the protection of ordered liberties. We will offer the checks and balances required in a functional democracy and vie robustly in forthcoming elections to elect those who share our vision of a new Nigeria. “Given our present national circumstances, there is a compelling need for a strong political opposition. We shall, therefore, remain in opposition, especially because of the policies and the governance modalities that we in the Labour Party campaigned for, especially reducing the cost of governance, moving the nation from consumption to production, reducing inflation, ending insecurity, promoting the rule of law, guaranteeing the responsibility to protect, and stabilizing the Nigerian currency; are clearly not the priorities of the present administration nor is it interested in achieving Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
The LP presidential candidate, who garnered 6.1 million votes to place third in the February 25 presidential election that was won by Tinubu with 8.7 million votes, while Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) came second with 6.9 million votes, expressed optimism over what he described as a “New Nigeria,” which LP and the Obidient Movement fought for in the last elections. No doubt, Obi has so far walked his talk on keeping the ruling party on its toes, but his cross-country tour and consultation of relevant stakeholders across political, ethnic and religious divides speak volume of his plan for 2027. Besides the plot by Atiku and Obi, there also moves by some chieftains of the APC that points to the fact that they may either front an aspirant who will challenge Tinubu for the 2027 ticket or pull out of the party and possibly rock the boat for the President and his supporters. Fingers are already pointing to the immediate past governor of Kaduna State, Mallam Nasir el-Rufai, in this regard over his recent meeting with the leadership of the Social Democratic Party (SDP). El-Rufai’s move may have informed why a former spokesman of the Atiku Campaign Organisation, Segun Sowunmi, cautioned President Tinubu against betraying the former Kaduna State governor and his Kogi State counterpart, Yahaya Bello, if he’s interested in contesting for a second term. In a statement he signed, the PDP chieftain noted that the poor treatment meted to El-Rufai and Bello by the Tinubu’s government goes against the long-term understanding between the Yoruba and the North. His words: “Upon reflection on the trajectory of President Tinubu and his journey to the presidency, I find my mind wondering if my Yoruba Uncle is still the same person that I have always known and admired. “You might need to think through this to understand me. The Yorubas already carry misconceptions about betrayal; that we don’t keep our end of the bargain. That we use and dump people; that we are cunning around the power play. “Say what you will about el-Rufai,, he supported Tinubu fully during the primary and the general election. Pray, how has he been treated? Same el-Rufai now has a security report that humiliated him during a Senate clearance made up of a majority of Tinubu men! What would the world call that but betrayal? “Now, Yahaya Bello, who practically fought like a madman to give Tinubu good numbers in Kogi, not to talk of how he funded and ran the youth campaign with vigour and energy to the extent that I was so jealous compared to the disorganised charade of my PDP. “Same Yahaya Bello who superintended over the membership registration of APC that to date I cannot but remember comparing the bliss and pageantry to the joke that my PDP ran under the Edo emperor. “Pray, is that the same GYB that is embarrassed to the level we are all witnessing? If this is not a betrayal, I would like someone to tell me what can be a betrayal than this. “Do you plan to contest a second term or do you think your work will be done in one term of just four years? Shall tomorrow not come? Where are the men of yesterday?”
