OPEC cuts demand forecast on expectation China would reduce imports
The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cut crude oil demand forecast for 2024 over expectation that China would reduce imports.
In its recent monthly oil market report, the group trimmed its forecasts for global oil demand for this year and next, primarily on expectations of softening demand from China.
OPEC expects global oil demand to grow by 2.11 million barrels per day in 2024 as against earlier estimates of 2.25 million barrels per day.
For 2025, the group expects a further slide to 1.78mbpd from previous forecasts of 1.85mbpd.
However, these numbers are still stronger than those forecasted by the Environmental Investigation Agency (EIA) and the International Energy Agency (IEA), according to ING commodities strategists.
Meanwhile, OPEC left its non-OPEC+ supply growth forecasts unchanged for 2024 and 2025 at 1.3mbpd and 1.1mbpd respectively.
The report also showed that OPEC production increased by 185,000 barrels per day month-on-month to 26.75mbpd in July, as the group exceeded the July oil target by 84,000 barrels per day.
This rise was driven by Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Iran, where output rose by 97,000 b/d, 57,000 b/d and 20,000 b/d respectively.
The OPEC+ production increased by 117,000 b/d in July to 40.91mbpd. The IEA will release its latest monthly oil market report today.
Crude oil output rose mainly in Saudi Arabia, while production experienced the biggest fall in Libya. Production in Saudi Arabia, the group’s largest producer, increased by 97,000 bpd, whereas output fell by 19,000 bpd in Libya.
Last month, total daily crude oil production of the OPEC+ group, which consists of OPEC and some non-OPEC producing countries, rose by 117,000 bpd to 40.91 million bpd.
Global oil demand growth forecast for 2024 is revised down by 135,000 bpd, from the previous month’s assessment.
Total world oil demand is anticipated to reach 104.3 million bpd in 2024, bolstered by actual data received for the first and in some cases second quarter of this year, as well as softening expectations for China’s oil demand growth this year.
