Kieran Culkin Has A Stronghold Over The Best Supporting Actor 2025 Oscar Now

After the 2025 Golden Globes, Kieran Culkin has emerged as the frontrunner in the Best Supporting Actor race at the 2025 Oscars. The 82nd Golden Globes were held at the historic Beverly Hilton Hotel in Beverly Hills, California on January 6. 2025. The event was hosted by comedian and television host Nikki Glaser, who was recently a standout guest on Netflix’s The Roast of Tom Brady. Culkin’s win was one of several surprises and snubs at the 2025 Golden Globes.

The 2025 Golden Globe results provide a strong indication of how several 2025 Oscars races will shape up, including Culkin’s surprise win over Denzel Washington for Best Supporting Actor in Any Motion Picture. Culkin, who won an Emmy and a previous Golden Globe for his role in the HBO drama series Succession, has never been nominated for an Academy Award. On the other hand, Washington โ€“ who was nominated for his role as Macrinus in Ridley Scott’s Gladiator II โ€“ is hoping for his eleventh Oscar nomination and third Oscar win, which would place him in an even more elite category.

Kieran Culkin Became A Major Contender For The Best Supporting Actor Oscar Throughout Awards Season

Critics and audiences praised Culkin’s outstanding performance

Leading up to awards season, Washington was one of, if not the, top contenders to take home the Supporting Actor award. Culkin’s win is more of a pleasant surprise than a snub, placing him in a strong position to earn his first Academy Award nomination at the upcoming Oscars for his role in the Jesse Eisenberg film, A Real Pain. This Golden Globe victory marks Culkin’s first major award for a role in a feature film. Even though this surprise came early at the 2025 Golden Globes, it just may be the most significant one of the entire night and will likely have major implications on the upcoming Oscar race.

Gladiator II became the 12th highest-grossing film of 2024 and was one of the most anticipated movies of the year but only received two nominations at the 2025 Golden Globes.

A Real Pain premiered at the Sundance Film Festival back in January 2024 but remained mostly under the radar until its wide theatrical release at the beginning of November. Directed by Jesse Eisenberg, who also co-stars, A Real Pain gradually picked up awards season buzz throughout Fall 2024. Critics and audiences praised Culkin’s outstanding performance as the free-spirited and defiant cousin of Eisenberg’s protagonist, which made his race against Washington much tighter.

Kieran Culkin Beat Denzel Washington For Best Supporting Actor Golden Globe & That’s Big For The Oscars

7 of the last 10 Globe winners in this category have won the Oscar

Not only does Culkin’s 2025 Golden Globe win build momentum for the upcoming Oscars race but historically, it gives him a relatively high probability of taking home the Academy Award. The winners of the Best Supporting Actor category for the Golden Globes and the Oscars have matched 44 out of 81 years overall, including 19 of 24 this century and 7 of 10 the past decade. This data makes for a fairly consistent track record of back-to-back Globe-Oscar winners in the Supporting Actor category, especially recently. This is clearly a good sign for Culkin and his chances at taking home his first Oscar.

Recent examples of dual Globe-Oscar winners in the Supporting Actor category include: Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All At Once, 2023), Troy Kotsur (CODA, 2022), Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, 2020), Mahershala Ali (Green Book, 2019), Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, 2018), and Mahershala Ali (Moonlight, 2017). While Washington’s chances are still quite solid and the Golden Globes aren’t necessarily predictive of Oscars nominations or winners, these numbers illustrate a strong trend that should place Culkin and Washington head-to-head once again.

Will Kieran Culkin Win The Best Supporting Actor Oscar Now?

He’s certainly the new frontrunner with the data to back him up

Jesse Eisenberg and Kieran Culkin in A Real Pain

As Culkin’s last few months have proven, a lot can change over a matter of weeks during awards season. Still, at this juncture, it appears that Culkin has emerged as the frontrunner and does have the highest probability of taking home the Oscar. The category is still filled with strong contenders outside of Washington and Culkin, and with the impending wide release of The Brutalist, which took home three of the top prizes at the 2025 Golden Globes (Best Director, Best Picture – Drama, Best Actor – Drama), Oscar projections are subject to change.

Guy Pearce of The Brutalist could make a push in the coming months, as well as Edward Norton for his transformative performance as “America’s tuning fork” Pete Seeger from A Complete Unknown. Dark horses Jeremy Strong of The Apprentice and Yura Borisov of Anora are still well within the conversation, as well as Clarence Maclin and Stanley Tucci’s unacknowledged performances in Sing Sing and Conclave, respectively. Either way, Culkin’s big night at the Golden Globes has big implications.