The Academy Award for Best Picture is the most coveted award at the Oscars, and while the race is one of the tightest ones in years, the data clearly shows that there is one favorite with just six days left before the actual ceremony. The Academy Awards are all up to the opinions of the Academy voters, with it being impossible to objectively tell what movie is best or what movie will win Best Picture. However, there have been trends that have been followed throughout Oscars history, and these trends suggest that this Best Picture nominee has the best shot.
The batch of Best Picture nominees for the 2025 Academy Awards is fantastic, with the nominees including Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, I’m Still Here, Nickel Boys, The Substance, and Wicked. All of these films are some of the most critically acclaimed movies of 2024, and any one of them has a chance to win the Oscar. The race is incredibly close, with all sides having committed fanbases. However, this awards season has already pointed at who is most likely to win Best Picture come Oscars night.
Conclave’s SAG Ensemble Award Is A Huge Boost For Its Oscar Chances
Among Its Other Big Award Wins
Conclave
9/10
- Release Date
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October 25, 2024
- Runtime
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120 Minutes
- Director
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Edward Berger
- Writers
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Peter Straughan, Robert Harris
Conclave has been a frontrunner for Best Picture throughout awards season, and a recent award that the film received gave its Oscar chances a huge boost. Conclave has already been building a lot of momentum as controversy has surrounded fellow nominees like Anora, The Brutalist, and Emilia Pérez. Conclave has also won a ton of awards already, with it getting an especially big boost in attention when it won Best Film, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Editing, and Outstanding British Film at the BAFTA Awards.
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Conclave recently won Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture at the Screen Actor Guild Awards, which gives the film a massive boost in the lead-up to Oscars night. This is one of the most important categories at the SAG Awards, with the win signaling that Conclave could continue its successes at the Academy Awards. Conclave‘s other awards at major and minor awards shows prove that the film has become a favorite in recent weeks, with it becoming a late-stage contender for the Academy Award for Best Picture during the awards season.
Anora Still Has The Edge Over Conclave For Best Picture At The Oscars 2025
Thanks To The PGA Awards
Anora
9/10
- Release Date
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October 18, 2024
- Runtime
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139 Minutes
- Director
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Sean Baker
- Writers
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Sean Baker
Despite Conclave seeming like it has a pretty good chance at winning Best Picture, the data also suggests that Anora has an even better chance. This comes from analyzing the Producers Guild of America Awards, which historically have been more accurate at predicting the Best Picture winners than the SAG Awards. Anora took home the top prize at the PGA Awards, that being Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures. This PGA category has been given to the future Best Picture winner 25 out of 35 times, meaning that it signals that Anora has a pretty good shot.
Meanwhile, the ensemble category at the SAG Awards has only been given to the future Best Picture winner 15 out of 29 times, meaning that it is less accurate than the PGA Awards. The last time that they differed was during the awards season for 2020 movies, with The Trial of the Chicago Seven winning the top SAG award and Nomadland winning the top PGA award. Nomadland then went on to win Best Picture.
Interestingly, the time that they differed before that, SAG ended up accurately predicting the Best Picture winner while the PGA award didn’t. The top SAG award for the 2019 movie season went to future Best Picture winner Parasite, while the top PGA award went to 1917. So, while it is impossible to accurately predict the Best Picture winner based on other awards shows, these trends do signal that Anora has a better chance of winning based on historical precedent, but Conclave isn’t far behind.
Does Conclave’s Lack Of Best Director Nomination Help Or Hurt It?
Only Six Other Movies Have Pulled It Off
One of the biggest strikes against Conclave‘s chances of winning Best Picture is that it wasn’t nominated in one of the most important Oscar categories: Best Director. The nominees for Best Director are Sean Baker for Anora, Brady Corbet for The Brutalist, James Mangold for A Complete Unknown, Jacques Audiard for Emilia Pérez, and Coralie Fargeat for The Substance. Edward Berger not getting a nomination for Conclave was surprising for many fans of the film, with it leading to some worries that Conclave doesn’t have a shot at winning Best Picture.
Throughout the history of the Academy Awards, only six movies have ever won Best Picture without a Best Director nomination. Those movies are 1927’s Wings, 1932’s Grand Hotel, 1989’s Driving Miss Daisy, 2012’s Argo, 2018’s Green Book, and 2021’s Coda. So, while it has happened three times since the 2010s, it is still incredibly rare for a film to win Best Picture without a Best Director nomination. Conclave winning Best Picture would mark only the seventh time that this has happened, meaning that it would be an impressive feat for it to pull off.
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The recent swing in favor of Conclave means that there is a possibility that its lack of a Best Director nomination could end up helping it. It could be that the Academy voters decide to give Anora a Best Director award while giving Coclave a Best Picture award so that both films can be appreciated. While this is unlikely, the preferential ballot system could lead to something like this happening, giving Conclave the Best Picture win.
Could Any Movie Other Than Anora Or Conclave Win Best Picture?
The Brutalist Seems Like The Only Other Option
It seems incredibly unlikely that another movie outside of Anora or Conclave will win Best Picture this year, with both of them doing well at the majority of other awards shows. The third most likely candidate is probably The Brutalist, and this is thanks to the acclaim that Adrien Brody’s performance is getting. Movies like A Complete Unknown and The Substance may have a slight chance, but it would be shocking if any of them beat Anora or Conclave. However, like at any Oscars ceremony, it is impossible to predict what will happen at the Academy Awards.
Oscars
- Location
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Los Angeles, CA
- Dates
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March 2, 2025
- Website
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https://www.oscars.org/