The first big 2025 box office showdown is almost here, and early reporting suggests that it could be big. In 2023, audiences witnessed the highly anticipated battle between Barbie and Oppenheimer as both were released on July 21. The “Barbenheimer” phenomenon benefitted both films, with Barbie opening to $162 million and Oppenheimer getting $82.4 million. Last year partially mimicked this weekend with “Glicked,” a showdown between Gladiator II and Wicked, which the latter won by a long shot.
Per The Quorum (via Puck), 2025 could bring a major box office showdown between Lilo & Stitch and Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning. The competition is based on initial awareness and interest data. Based on polling, Lilo & Stitch and Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning have high awareness scores of 62% and 59%, respectively. They are tied at 53% interest scores. The table notes that this could be an “epic Memorial Day showdown.”
What This Means For The Box Office
Mission: Impossible And Lilo & Stitch Could Mimic Past Patterns
While the text above the table indicates that two movies have never opened above $60 million on Memorial Day Weekend, this is not the case. In 2011, Kung Fu Panda 2 and The Hangover Part II opened to $60.8 million and $103.4 million, respectively. In 2004 (Shrek 2 and The Day After Tomorrow), 2005 (Star Wars: Episode III – Revenge of the Sith and Madagascar), and 2007 (Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End and Shrek the Third), two movies were able to earn over $60 million, but one was a returning hit.
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All four scenarios are apt points of comparison to the Mission: Impossible versus Lilo & Stitch battle. In all these cases, one family-aimed movie faces off against something with an older audience, often part of major franchises. Mission: Impossible is a major franchise movie and Lilo & Stitch is a remake, so, similar to these previous films, they have built-in awareness and interest. Unlike the other cases, however, the family-aimed movie Lilo & Stitch is live-action rather than animated.
Our Take On This Box Office Weekend
Both Franchises Need Some Saving
This Memorial Day weekend is a great opportunity for Mission: Impossible and Lilo & Stitch to recover their respective franchises. The previous installment, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, was considered an underperformer, making $571.1 million on a budget of around $291 million. Lilo & Stitch is part of Disney’s group of live-action remakes, the most recent of which, Snow White, is being review bombed on IMDb and underperforming. As such, this Memorial Day weekend could represent box office recovery for their brand.
Source: The Quorum (via Puck)