The war in Iran is bleeding the Trump administration politically, and behind closed doors, officials are trying to figure out how to get out of it.
Intelligence agencies have begun modeling what would happen if Trump declared victory tomorrow and pulled American forces back from the two-month conflict. The analysis, requested by senior administration officials, reflects mounting concern that the war could trigger significant Republican losses in midterm elections.
The political math is simple. Polls show the conflict is deeply unpopular. Only one in four Americans thinks the war has made the country safer and has been worth the cost.
What makes the political calculation harder is the Iran problem. If Trump claims victory and leaves, intelligence officials believe Iran will interpret it as a win—a chance to rebuild military capabilities and eventually restart its nuclear program. If Trump declares victory but keeps troops in place, Iran will likely see through it as a negotiating bluff that doesn’t actually end the war.
Neither option is clean. Neither solves the underlying problem that has strangled global oil markets for weeks.
Three weeks after Trump declared a ceasefire, Iran still controls the Strait of Hormuz. The country has blocked ships, laid mines, and turned one of the world’s most economically vital waterways into a chokepoint. About one-fifth of global crude oil passes through that strait. The blockade has driven up gas prices worldwide and put sustained pressure on American households.
Lifting the blockade requires Iran to agree to lift it. So far, Iran has not.
Trump canceled a planned diplomatic mission last weekend, telling reporters that sending envoys to meet with Iranian officials in Pakistan would take “too much time.” If Iran wanted to talk, he said, they could call him.
Diplomacy, in other words, is stalled.
Meanwhile, the longer the ceasefire lasts, the harder it becomes to restart the war if negotiations fail. During the initial bombing campaign in February, U.S. and Israeli strikes buried Iranian military equipment. The ceasefire gave Iran time to dig it all back out. The tactical advantage the U.S. had in the first days of the conflict has eroded. If fighting resumes, it will be more costly than it would have been weeks ago.
Various military options remain theoretically available, from renewed airstrikes to more ambitious operations. But sources familiar with administration planning say the most aggressive options—including a ground invasion of Iran—have receded from serious consideration.
(YWN World Headquarters – NYC)
